2022 Predictions
# Areas of Interest
- Continued demand for blockspace
- alt-L1 to L2 plays
- Income generation, incentive control (veNomics)
- Stablecoins
- a bear market for crypto is a bull market for stablecoins
- there will be regulatory headwinds…
- DAO experiments & Utility NFTs
- Private Transactions
# 2022 Plays
- Income generation
- Ethereum Mainnet
- FXS -> cvxFXS
- CVX -> vlCVX
- CRV -> cvxCRV
- UniV3 LPs for tokens I want
- Arbitrum
- DPX - also a good way of generating free yield on ETH you would sell anyway
- Ethereum Mainnet
- Blockspace (L1, L2s that haven’t fully pumped yet)
- MATIC
- ATOM
- GNO
- NEAR/AURORA
- METIS
- ALGO
- zkSync
- Stablecoins
- FXS
- SPELL
- CRV
- FLX
- TRIBE
- LQTY
- Crosschain
- SYN
- ANY
- CELR
# Risks
- Macro (hedged via income generation and stablecoin plays)
- Regulation
- web3, great rebrand, need to make it usable
# Other Takes
# A list of open problems in DeFi
https://mirror.xyz/0xemperor.eth/0guEj0CYt5V8J5AKur2_UNKyOhONr1QJaG4NGDF0YoQ
# ARK Invest Big Ideas 2022
https://research.ark-invest.com/hubfs/1_Download_Files_ARK-Invest/White_Papers/ARK_BigIdeas2022.pdf
# Electric Capital Developer Report (2021)
https://medium.com/electric-capital/electric-capital-developer-report-2021-f37874efea6d
# redphonecrypto
https://drive.google.com/file/d/1jxmTpPE-XXUCDkJwez87FA9Fi-xlaXqr/view https://redphone.substack.com/p/69
# Richard Chen (1confirmation): Under-the-radar product trends: 2021 recap and 2022 predictions
https://thecontrol.co/under-the-radar-product-trends-2021-recap-and-2022-predictions-403084a63ce8
# 1confirmation 2021 NFT YEAR IN REVIEW
https://www.1confirmation.com/2021-nft-annual-review https://static1.squarespace.com/static/614cb06ad09e374be7d91eb9/t/61d1e304f52c6c2fb8f33927/1641145100609/1confirmation+2021+NFT+Year+in+Review.pdf
# David Phelps
https://twitter.com/divine_economy/status/1476655981362831360 https://twitter.com/divine_economy/status/1476996478015000581
# 0xJim
https://jim.mirror.xyz/eW8O258nflwIRo-MKR5u2ipGgoDdT_KOAQAIhK0Iu5M
# Eric Wall
https://twitter.com/ercwl/status/1476068950584791041
# Bankless
https://newsletter.banklesshq.com/p/what-are-your-2022-crypto-predictions/comments 2021: https://newsletter.banklesshq.com/p/bankless-2021-predictions
# Ansem’s Newsletter
https://blknoiz06.substack.com/p/quarter-i-2022
# DrNickA
https://twitter.com/DrNickA/status/1477223969249968129 Ultra Bull: https://twitter.com/DrNickA/status/1440591802055069704 Ultra Bear: https://twitter.com/DrNickA/status/1440222545077178371
# Square Enix
https://www.hd.square-enix.com/eng/news/2022/html/a_new_years_letter_from_the_president_2.html
# Adam Cochran
https://twitter.com/adamscochran/status/1476652328736342023
# The Block Research 2022 Digital Asset Outlook
https://www.tbstat.com/wp/uploads/2021/12/The-Block-Research-2022-Digital-Asset-Outlook.v2.pdf
# Messari Crypto Theses for 2022
https://messari.io/pdf/messari-report-crypto-theses-for-2022.pdf
# Arcane Research 2021 Summary (+ some 2022 predictions)
# Bloomberg Global Cryptocurrencies 2022 Outlook
https://assets.bbhub.io/professional/sites/10/1489771_Crypto-Dev2021Outlook.pdf
- lol
# 2021 Insights
- Trading the Metagame by Cobie
- China + web3 by Qiao Wang
- Ethereum vs Alt L1s Su Zhu and Hasu (Uncommon Core Podcast)
- 5 Mental Models for Web3 Chris Dixon (Bankless Podcast)
- An Engineer’s Hype-Free Observations on Web3 (and its Possibilities)
- Notes on Web3 - Robin Sloan’s critique of web3
- Venkatesh Rao: Jumping into Web3 - a very long but worthwhile Twitter thread (unrolled)
# Curve Wars
Understanding the ve/vl token governance models is key to understanding DeFi protocol Value Accrual
- Understanding the general landscape
- Actual mechanics and how to make money
- https://tokenbrice.xyz/crv-wars/
- https://medium.com/coinmonks/convex-curve-curve-d7e28cd6c1d9
- https://www.littlemight.com/articles/the-cashflow-passive-income-401k-defi-project-convex-finance
- https://jamesbachini.com/curve-wars/
- CVX Analysis by etant
- “Explaining what is Curve and Convex. With a comprehensive analysis of the utility, narrative, and demand of CVX.”
- Recommended plays
- CRV @ 6 and CVX @ 50 (Jan 4 2021) is probably a bit overheated. I’d recommend waiting for a pullback before buying. CRV is available on many exchanges and can be bought with limit orders on CEX. CVX is currently almost exclusively only available via DEX. FXS and DPX are also super hot atm.
- My “decent” entry targets: CRV <5, CVX <35, FXS <30, DPX <1500
- If you’re going to buy these assets, the best way to profit is to also use these protocols, these can only be executed on Ethereum mainnet - be prepared for $50+/tx. I’d recommend only entering with $50K+ ($100K+ honestly)
- CRV -> cvxCRV and stake on https://www.convexfinance.com/stake
- CVX -> vlCVX on
https://www.convexfinance.com/lock-cvx
- Requires relocking every 16wks, delegating to Votium, voting
- FXS -> cvxFXS on
https://frax.convexfinance.com/ (if before FPI airdrop)
- you can do a lot more with FXS (veFXS) if you are looking for the best stablecoin returns available…
- DPX -> DPX/ETH farm on
https://app.dopex.io/farms (Arbitrum)
- DPX is a bit too volatile, but you should also look into covered calls for ETH using DopeX as the returns are great if you have ETH that you would sell at specific prices anyway
- One more thing…
- CRV @ 6 and CVX @ 50 (Jan 4 2021) is probably a bit overheated. I’d recommend waiting for a pullback before buying. CRV is available on many exchanges and can be bought with limit orders on CEX. CVX is currently almost exclusively only available via DEX. FXS and DPX are also super hot atm.