2022 Predictions

Last updated January 30, 2022

• Continued demand for blockspace
  • alt-L1 to L2 plays
• Income generation, incentive control (veNomics)
• Stablecoins
  • a bear market for crypto is a bull market for stablecoins
  • there will be regulatory headwinds…
• DAO experiments & Utility NFTs
  • https://twitter.com/Flynnjamm/status/1476582725691789315
• Private Transactions

• Income generation
  • Ethereum Mainnet
    • FXS -> cvxFXS
    • CVX -> vlCVX
    • CRV -> cvxCRV
    • UniV3 LPs for tokens I want
  • Arbitrum
    • DPX - also a good way of generating free yield on ETH you would sell anyway
• Blockspace (L1, L2s that haven’t fully pumped yet)
  • MATIC
  • ATOM
  • GNO
  • NEAR/AURORA
  • METIS
  • ALGO
  • zkSync
• Stablecoins
  • FXS
  • SPELL
  • CRV
  • FLX
  • TRIBE
  • LQTY
• Crosschain
  • SYN
  • ANY
  • CELR

• Macro (hedged via income generation and stablecoin plays)
• Regulation
  • https://twitter.com/moo9000/status/1476827340940455939
• web3, great rebrand, need to make it usable
  • https://twitter.com/chriscantino/status/1477665773619486720

https://mirror.xyz/0xemperor.eth/0guEj0CYt5V8J5AKur2_UNKyOhONr1QJaG4NGDF0YoQ

https://research.ark-invest.com/hubfs/1_Download_Files_ARK-Invest/White_Papers/ARK_BigIdeas2022.pdf

https://medium.com/electric-capital/electric-capital-developer-report-2021-f37874efea6d

https://drive.google.com/file/d/1jxmTpPE-XXUCDkJwez87FA9Fi-xlaXqr/view https://redphone.substack.com/p/69

https://thecontrol.co/under-the-radar-product-trends-2021-recap-and-2022-predictions-403084a63ce8

https://www.1confirmation.com/2021-nft-annual-review https://static1.squarespace.com/static/614cb06ad09e374be7d91eb9/t/61d1e304f52c6c2fb8f33927/1641145100609/1confirmation+2021+NFT+Year+in+Review.pdf

https://twitter.com/divine_economy/status/1476655981362831360 https://twitter.com/divine_economy/status/1476996478015000581

https://jim.mirror.xyz/eW8O258nflwIRo-MKR5u2ipGgoDdT_KOAQAIhK0Iu5M

https://twitter.com/ercwl/status/1476068950584791041

https://newsletter.banklesshq.com/p/what-are-your-2022-crypto-predictions/comments 2021: https://newsletter.banklesshq.com/p/bankless-2021-predictions

https://blknoiz06.substack.com/p/quarter-i-2022

https://twitter.com/DrNickA/status/1477223969249968129 Ultra Bull: https://twitter.com/DrNickA/status/1440591802055069704 Ultra Bear: https://twitter.com/DrNickA/status/1440222545077178371

https://www.hd.square-enix.com/eng/news/2022/html/a_new_years_letter_from_the_president_2.html

https://twitter.com/adamscochran/status/1476652328736342023

https://www.tbstat.com/wp/uploads/2021/12/The-Block-Research-2022-Digital-Asset-Outlook.v2.pdf

https://messari.io/pdf/messari-report-crypto-theses-for-2022.pdf

https://static1.squarespace.com/static/60377b34e7791c1277aaae97/t/61cb272480430d5cc3337156/1640703789129/Weekly+update+-+Arcane+Research+%28Week+51%29+2021+SUMMARY.pdf

https://assets.bbhub.io/professional/sites/10/1489771_Crypto-Dev2021Outlook.pdf

• lol

• Trading the Metagame by Cobie
• China + web3 by Qiao Wang
• Ethereum vs Alt L1s Su Zhu and Hasu (Uncommon Core Podcast)
• 5 Mental Models for Web3 Chris Dixon (Bankless Podcast)
• An Engineer’s Hype-Free Observations on Web3 (and its Possibilities)
• Notes on Web3 - Robin Sloan’s critique of web3
• Venkatesh Rao: Jumping into Web3 - a very long but worthwhile Twitter thread (unrolled)

Understanding the ve/vl token governance models is key to understanding DeFi protocol Value Accrual

• Understanding the general landscape
  • https://rekt.news/curve-wars/
  • https://defieducation.substack.com/p/the-great-curve-wars
  • https://theknower.substack.com/p/the-curve-wars-rage-on
  • https://medium.com/@Magnus_Capital/gauge-wars-the-convex-governance-blackhole-the-removal-of-the-bribe-ceiling-3245c77c3c02
• Actual mechanics and how to make money
  • https://tokenbrice.xyz/crv-wars/
  • https://medium.com/coinmonks/convex-curve-curve-d7e28cd6c1d9
  • https://www.littlemight.com/articles/the-cashflow-passive-income-401k-defi-project-convex-finance
  • https://jamesbachini.com/curve-wars/
  • CVX Analysis by etant
    • “Explaining what is Curve and Convex. With a comprehensive analysis of the utility, narrative, and demand of CVX.”
• Recommended plays
  • CRV @ 6 and CVX @ 50 (Jan 4 2021) is probably a bit overheated. I’d recommend waiting for a pullback before buying. CRV is available on many exchanges and can be bought with limit orders on CEX. CVX is currently almost exclusively only available via DEX. FXS and DPX are also super hot atm.
    • My “decent” entry targets: CRV <5, CVX <35, FXS <30, DPX <1500
  • If you’re going to buy these assets, the best way to profit is to also use these protocols, these can only be executed on Ethereum mainnet - be prepared for $50+/tx. I’d recommend only entering with $50K+ ($100K+ honestly)
    • CRV -> cvxCRV and stake on https://www.convexfinance.com/stake
    • CVX -> vlCVX on https://www.convexfinance.com/lock-cvx
      • Requires relocking every 16wks, delegating to Votium, voting
    • FXS -> cvxFXS on https://frax.convexfinance.com/ (if before FPI airdrop)
      • you can do a lot more with FXS (veFXS) if you are looking for the best stablecoin returns available…
    • DPX -> DPX/ETH farm on https://app.dopex.io/farms (Arbitrum)
      • DPX is a bit too volatile, but you should also look into covered calls for ETH using DopeX as the returns are great if you have ETH that you would sell at specific prices anyway
  • One more thing…
    • https://defi-lab.xyz/uniswapv3simulator
    • https://www.metacrypt.org/tools/uniswap-v3-calculator-simulator/